Fore! 2014

[lostinamerica]

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Outrights:

Dustin Johnson(+750) e.w.
- - I won't pick up his winning marker from HSBC in November, and DJ won here for me last year to boot.

Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
- - Among the second and third tier of options, I'll take the first-time Texan over taking Gary Woodland.



GL

 

[redsox3g2]

Good luck man. Spieth off to a nice start today.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights YTD: 1-1 (+1.00*)
Matchups YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Volvo Golf Champions:

Outrights:

Thomas Bjorn(12/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(28/1) e.w.
Chris Wood(40/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(25/1) e.w.
Darren Clarke(150/1) e.w.
Mikko Ilonen(66/1) e.w.
- - Looking for some speculative options, more so than at the Sony.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Sony Open:


Outrights:

Zach Johnson(10/1) e.w.
- - I loved everything about Zach's chances last week except the fact the tournament was at Kapalua. Winning on that venue confirms for the umpteenth time in recent months how far removed his game is from the start of last year. Now he gets a tailor-made venue, where accurate driving is much more important, and holing putts is more important and way easier . . . Not only do I see value in this price, but I went looking for value in the coming majors.

Jordan Spieth(16/1) e.w.
- - In watching the TV coverage at Kapalua, the first significant thing I heard about Spieth was that he's been working on a change to his grip. So then I go looking and read the following: "He (Spieth) has never played this much tournament golf in one year, and one of the challenges was keeping his swing consistent for weeks at a time. He worked his grip, the way he loaded his weight taking the club back so he could flatten his swing and hit his natural draw. "I still don't own my swing yet," said Spieth, who at least now owns his own house. "The good news is I'm able to make it work if things aren't going well."" Then next I hear it reported that Spieth says he shouldn't make many bogies this week (at Kapalua) as long as he's not missing the huge fairways. And in fact he led the field with only two bogies . . . So the guy is working on grip/swing changes, but he really doesn't expect to make any bogies. Some how I find that disconnect rather telling . . . IMO Zach definitely played the best golf last week, but Spieth definitely would have won if he had putted like Zach, and the guy is a very good putter. So on balance, I'll look for Spieth to flex his muscles again this week.

Brian Gay(40/1) e.w.
- - Seems an obvious pick.

Jerry Kelly(125/1) e.w.
- - Seems a good pick.

Carl Pettersson(80/1) e.w.
- - Might be a decent pick.

K.J. Choi(66/1) e.w.
- - Throwing darts with my eyes closed.


Also . . .

Zach Johnson(66/1) e.w. 143rd Open Championship
- - It would take a perfect storm of firm conditions and difficult weather for me to ever put Zach on the short list of favorites at Augusta, and then, probably not. Pinehurst also seems a stretch as being a good fit for Zach. On the other hand, Royal Liverpool, whether firm and fast, or thick from downpours, seems a decent fit (and easily offers the best odds), so I'm lumping on, and I believe there is a good chance Zach will also be flexing his Ryder Cup chops around the time of the John Deere Classic.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

In-running:

Charles Howell(150/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
- - Go get em.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights YTD: 2-13 (+4.31*)
Matchups YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)


Abu Dhabi:

Outrights:

Here's a video from Abu Dhabi taken just a few yards off the fairway, and the video has definitely influenced the structuring of my plays this week in terms of who is on my team and the order in which my selections are listed:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=562199870543630&set=vb.416810428415909&type=2&theater

Joost Luiten(25/1) e.w.
- - Before the video I was likely going to opt for taking Branden Grace as a lower echelon selection over Joost Luiten, and was also going to include Martin Kaymer on my team, but now Kaymer is out (and instead I'd look toward Sergio or Stenson if I was inclined to grab any names among the favorites), and Luiten with his driving stats not only bumps Grace, but becomes a top echelon selection.

Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w.
- - IMO Fisher's 2013 campaign had lots of positive signs but very few tangible rewards on the PGA Tour segment, but thereafter was showing signs of breaking through upon a return to his European Tour roots. I guess I suspect Fisher is extremely focused on attaining some significant accomplishments in the Ryder Cup season of 2014, and he was safely ensconced on my team for this week before the video, but now he moves up a couple of notches because driving has been a strength of his game during stretches when he has struggled in other departments, as well as a strength when he was at his best not so many years ago.

Padraig Harrington(60/1) e.w.
- - He showed me the positive signs I was hoping to see last week, so until he shows me negative signs that are equally compelling, Padraig has earned a spot among my selections at these prices.

Thorbjorn Olesen(60/1) e.w.
- - To start the season in the desert, he fits on my team both before and after the video.

Morten Orum Madsen(125/1) e.w.
- - A play which passed muster with me when I heard his name suggested by a capper with better sources, research and history than me.

Ricardo Santos(150/1) e.w.
- - This was a hunch that was apparently on someone else's radar as well, so that was enough for me to take the plunge and go after a glimmer of opportunity, although he now seems a far fetched outsider on the basis of his driving stats.

Alvaro Quiros(80/1) e.w.
- - Unlike Branden Grace who I let go, and Chris Wood and David Howell who were merely under consideration, I kept Quiros on board even after the video.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Humana Challenge:

Outrights:

Justin Leonard(150/1) e.w.
- - Justin was on my radar as a possibility last week, but I defered to Jerry Kelly instead. While actively tracking Justin on my radar last week I felt I observed a nice week with a cool putter, and now I'll swap Kelly out for Leonard this week.

Scott Stallings(125/1) e.w.
- - I went looking at last year's rendition with an eye toward a possible play on David Lingmerth, and what I came away with was a keen interest in making a wager on Scott Stallings instead. While a return on the wager would require a real spike in Scott's form from out of the blue, that sort of spike is definitely there as part of his prior resume. I just think this ANGLE offers real value this week.

Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.
- - Last year's faithful plays on Glover for 28 events from January through November yielded just over 3 units of profit for a T-4 at Honda (250/1 e.w.) and T-4 at New Orleans (150/1 e.w.). I think I sort of like his pairing this week with Weekley, and although I really have no ANGLES or INFORMATION worth reporting on Glover as January arrives, right now I'm expecting a much bigger and healthier year in 2014.

Jeff Overton(66/1) e.w.
- - Seems close, and can go pretty low, so welcome aboard.

Jason Kokrak(66/1) e.w.
- - Really no shortage of players in the 28/1 to 80/1 range who sort of tempt me this week, and this is one of them.

Gary Woodland(30/1) e.w.
- - And another.

Brendon De Jonge(66/1) e.w.
- - And another.

Billy Horschel(28/1) e.w.
- - Time to stop.

Chris Stroud(80/1) e.w.
- - Stop.


Also:

Brandt Snedeker(33/1) e.w. for The Masters
- - After I was at least paying enough attention to see this topic mentioned, there was really nothing for me to think about.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

In-running (Humana):

Cameron Tringale(150/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
- - I don't much expect him to win, but: (1) He was on my radar to start, and now I'm really liking his chances for moving smartly up the leaderboard; (2) I think the price offers fair value; and (3) He's prominent on my list of "players I want to be on when they win", and I'd be kicking myself if he got in the mix and I didn't make the play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Mitsubishi at Hualalai:

Outrights:

John Cook(14/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Mark Calcavecchia(50/1) e.w.
Tom Watson(66/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights YTD: 3-32 (+3.38*)
Matchups YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)


Pure Silk-Bahamas LPGA Classic

Outrights:

Jaye Marie Green(125/1) e.w.
- - http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/10104996/jaye-marie-green-wins-lpga-tour-q-school


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Lucas Glover(400/1) e.w.
- - A strong play for me this week (off a double bogie on his final hole last week to miss the cut), as I would always put this event among my top 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 opportunities for G.Lover in any season.

Hudson Swafford(150/1) e.w.
- - Starts the season racking up a very impressive line of scores, with an almost freaky looking array of stats; I sort of doubt that poa annua greens are the right recipe for the Georgia lad this week, but he's been on my radar and makes the team.
http://www.pga.com/news/pga-tour/notebook-how-hard-it-tell-apart-hudson-swafford-and-harris-english

Kyle Stanley(200/1) e.w.
- - A newlywed (?), with a bounce in his step from the Seahawks punching their ticket to the Super Bowl, with a chance to pop early before Phoenix, at a place that will owe him something until something gets paid back.
http://i595.photobucket.com/albums/tt37/LIA-MB/Madjacks/06checkstanleytorreypines.jpg

Charles Howell(55/1) e.w.
- - Another player like Stanley who is still owed a better fate around Torrey Pines, and the play seems justified more by substance than mere speculation. But these greens usually require some bold strokes from inside five feet like Snedeker or Stanley or Woods deliver, and not the pace Howell prefers.

Michael Kim(200/1) e.w.
- - I'll take his ANGLE and his credentials and his price over immersed locals like Fowler (he doesn't own his swing) and Lovemark and Perez.

Nick Watney(40/1) e.w.
- - I always thought a few like Johnny Miller were way too high on this guy, but I can like him in this season debut.

Brandt Snedeker(20/1) e.w.
- - He says his game is awesome right now even if his results have me doubting that company line.

Ben Crane(110/1) e.w.
- - Word he's been "practicing hard in California" sold me on this play.

Justin Leonard(100/1) e.w.
- - I've been indecisive and none too sure what to make of this play, and on the whole, I'm surprised I included it.


I can't believe I missed the Wednesday start in Qatar, as I have had some success in that event, and I was really sort of liking some of my definites and my maybes on my sheet. Since then I've been indecisive in the debate I've been having with myself of whether the opportunities to jump in the fray in-running would be advisable.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights YTD: 3-42 (-6.62*)
Matchups YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)


WM Phoenix Open:

Outrights:

My "something other than blockbuster" = Waste Management lineup:

Gary Woodland(33/1) e.w.
Nicolas Colsaerts(80/1) e.w.
Rory Sabbatini(100/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(90/1) e.w.
Luke Guthrie(80/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(400/1) e.w.
Kevin Tway(640/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
James Hahn(200/1) e.w.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights YTD: 3-51 (-15.62*)
Matchups YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)


AT&T Pebble Beach:

Outrights:

Spencer Levin(66/1) e.w.
Russell Knox(80/1) e.w.
Pat Perez(50/1) e.w.
Charlie Wi(125/1) e.w.
Charley Hoffman(50/1) e.w.
Justin Hicks(100/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(350/1) e.w.
John Daly(560/1) e.w.
Davis Love(200/1) e.w.
Ricky Barnes(200/1) e.w.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Africa Open:

Outrights:

David Horsey(35/1) e.w.
Damien McGrane(125/1) e.w.
Lyle Rowe(200/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Northern Trust (Riviera):

Outrights:

Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
K.J. Choi(66/1) e.w.
Kevin Stadler(66/1) e.w.
Cameron Tringale(100/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(100/1) e.w.
Stewart Cink(125/1) e.w.
Justin Leonard(200/1) e.w.
Trevor Immelman(200/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover (500/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Accenture Match Play:


Outrights:

Matt Kuchar(28/1) e.w.
Webb Simpson(33/1) e.w.
Hunter Mahan(22/1) e.w.
Harris English(66/1) e.w.
Stephen Gallacher(125/1) e.w.


Round 1:

Aphibarnrat(+180) over Stenson
Delaet(-130) over Reed
Donaldson(-105) over Horschel


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Honda LPGA Thailand:

Michelle Wie(50/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Round 2:

Simpson(-145) over Snedeker
Kuchar(-140) over Moore
Day(-145) over Horschel

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Round 3:

Simpson(-120) over Oosthuizen
Mahan(-130) over McDowell

GL

 

[Jles]

Great job in round 2 yesterday, bud. GL today.